NASA knows the satellite will fall out of orbit in the next couple of days. They know that about two dozen pieces of it should survive re-entry. What they don't know is exactly when they will fall or where.They don't know the specifics because of the satellite's immense speed (18,000mph) and variances in the earth's upper atmosphere, which affect the satellite's trajectory.
NASA also doesn't know exactly what risk the satellite poses to people, but scientists have hazarded a guess. By factoring in the earth's population (7,000,000,000), the space vehicle's usual orbit, and the estimated amount of falling debris, NASA has predicted a 1 in 3,200 chance that a human will be struck by a chunk of the satellite.
NASA has issued regular reminders that whatever debris falls on land still belongs to the owner of the satellite it came from. Space junk is not for souvenir hunters, they say.
That proclamation generated a somewhat deeper question. Actually, it was my wife who posed the question: if the satellite owner also owns the debris, is the owner then liable if falling chunks of satellite cause property damage or hurt someone.
For that answer, I turned to NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton. NASA's public affairs division reported there are a number of overlapping international space treaties dating back several decades that deal with damage liability. How an actual case of damage or injury would be dealt with under the treaties has never been put the test in court, they report. Let's hope there is never a case where the courts would have to figure it out.
An article on space damage liability was published just this week by The Space Review.
The odds of the satellite hitting a person.
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